Foreign minister holds important talks with high-ranking Taliban official; Pakistan’s dollar bonds expected to rally for second year on IMF bailout prospects
In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #39
Peshawar High Court recalls decision on PTI’s electoral symbol
On 3 January, the Peshawar High Court (PHC) recalled its earlier decision and restored the ruling of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), revoking the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)’s electoral symbol ‘bat’ over discrepancies in intra-party elections. The PHC’s single-member bench suspended the ECP’s decision on 26 December, restoring the PTI’s electoral symbol. However, the ECP filed a review appeal against the decision. On Wednesday, the PHC accepted the review plea, citing an “ex parte order” that hindered the smooth election process, and directed the ECP to proceed with the election process. (Waseem Ahmad Shah, “Pendulum of favour swings away from PTI,” Dawn, 4 January 2024; Amjad Safi, Mumtaz Alvi, and Sohail Khan, “PTI braces for legal innings as PHC takes back ‘bat’,” The News International, 4 January 2024)
PPPP approves Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari as Prime Ministerial candidate
On 4 January, Dawn reported that the Central Executive Committee (CEC) of the Pakistan Peoples Party-Parliamentarians (PPPP) officially approved Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari as the party’s prime ministerial candidate. The decision was made during a hybrid meeting chaired by PPPP President Asif Ali Zardari. Following the nomination, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari unveiled the party’s election manifesto, outlining plans to address issues such as terrorism, subsidies for industries, financial benefits for farmers, and social welfare programs. He also expressed willingness to contest elections from Lahore and dared Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif to contest against him in Larkana. (Amjad Mahmood, “PPP okays Bilawal for PM’s slot,” Dawn, 4 January 2024)
Imran Khan challenges rejection of nomination papers for NA-122 and NA-89
On 3 January, Imran Khan challenged the rejection of his nomination papers for NA-122 (Lahore) and NA-89 (Mianwali) in the upcoming general elections. The appeal contends that the returning officers (ROs) unlawfully dismissed the papers based on a decision by an Islamabad sessions court regarding Imran Khan’s conviction in the Toshakhana gifts case. The appeal argues that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is not a court, and the conviction does not amount to disqualification under the constitution. The appeal seeks to set aside the ROs’ decisions and accept Khan’s nomination papers for both constituencies. Additionally, an election tribunal in Rawalpindi overturned the rejection of PTI candidate Umair Khan Niazi’s nomination papers for NA-89 and NA-90 (Mianwali), stating that the rejection was based on peripheral issues. The tribunal in Islamabad has also grouped all appeals against the rejection of PTI’s candidates’ nomination papers and sought a reply from the ECP by Friday. (Wajih Ahmad Sheikh and Malik Asad, “Imran challenges rejection of papers for two NA seats,” Dawn, 4 January 2024)
PTI chairman calls for talks with stakeholders, seeks dialogues to resolve tensions
On 3 January, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Barrister Gohar Khan called for talks with the country’s powerful stakeholders to resolve tensions ahead of the upcoming general elections. Gohar emphasized that PTI has no quarrel with the establishment and is willing to engage in constructive dialogue to address any misunderstandings. This appeal comes amid an ongoing standoff between the military establishment and ex-PM Imran Khan. Gohar expressed the party’s readiness to sit down and clear the air, seeking a positive and constructive dialogue for the betterment of the country. (Rizwan Shehzad, “PTI seeks talks with establishment,” The Express Tribune, 4 January 2024)
PROVINCES
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Attacks on political figures in tribal districts
On 3 January, two separate attacks targeted political figures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s tribal districts. Former Chairman of the National Democratic Movement (NDM), Mohsin Dawar, survived an armed attack on his convoy during an election rally in North Waziristan. Meanwhile, a JUI-F provincial assembly candidate from Bajaur,Qari Khairullah, narrowly escaped a roadside bomb in Bajaur. Both incidents highlighted concerns about security and violence in the run-up to the general elections. No immediate claims of responsibility were reported for the attacks. (Nasir Iqbal and Malik Asad, “Govt told not to uproot Baloch camp protest,” Dawn, 4 January 2024)
Balochistan: Partial closure in Quetta, complete shutdown in other districts
On 3 January, a shutter down strike called by the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) led to a partial closure of markets in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan. However, complete strikes were observed in various districts, including Gwadar, Turbat, and Panjgur. The strike was organized in protest against the alleged extra-judicial killing of Balaach Mola Bakhsh in Turbat and the violence and enforced disappearance of participants, including women and children, during a long march in Islamabad. (Saleem Shahid, “Balochistan heeds strike call given by BYC,” Dawn, 4 January 2024)
Balochistan: Supreme Court advises government not to use harsh measures against Baloch protesters
On 3 January, the Supreme Court of Pakistan urged the government not to resort to harsh measures against Baloch protesters during a hearing on a petition filed by lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan against enforced disappearances. Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Qazi Faez Isa emphasized the citizens’ right to protest and stated that unless there is violence or destruction of public property, there should be no reason to curtail the right to protest. The Islamabad High Court (IHC) also barred the police from using force to disperse the Baloch protesters encamped outside the National Press Club. (Nasir Iqbal and Malik Asad, “Govt told not to uproot Baloch protest camp,” Dawn, 4 January 2024)
EXTERNAL
Foreign minister holds important talks with high-ranking Taliban official
On 3 January, during a meeting with the deputy head of military intelligence and strategy in the Taliban administration, Haji Mullah Shirin, the caretaker Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani urged the Taliban regime to address major issues to strengthen bilateral ties. Jilani, while reaffirming Pakistani commitment to keeping mutually beneficial ties with Afghanistan, said that contentious issues between the two had to be addressed to enhance trade and connectivity. Peace and security and people-to-people contacts were also discussed. Jilani later expressed that the meeting was “productive,” confirming that he “stressed imperatives of addressing all issues to harness the full potential for trade and connectivity.”The Mullah-led Afghan delegation also took part in the sixth session of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Coordination Committee (JCC), which explored ways to help cross-border movement. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Islamabad urges Kabul to address bilateral concerns,” Dawn, 4 January 2024; Mariana Baabar, “Islamabad affirms commitment to ‘mutually beneficial’ ties with Kabul,” The News International, 4 January 2024)
ECONOMY
The drastic decline in Pakistan’s cotton production for the 2023-24 crop year
On 3 January, the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) published data as per which Pakistan’s cotton production for the crop year 2023-24 is expected to be significantly lower than the initial target, with an estimated total output of 8.5 million bales compared to the original goal of 12.8 million bales. The PCGA data till 31 December reveals that 8.17 million bales of cotton have reached ginning factories across the country. While this figure is 77 per cent higher than the total production of the previous year, adverse weather conditions and pest attacks have impacted the crop. The reduced production may lead to the need to import 3.0 million bales to meet local requirements. (Amjad Mahmood, “Cotton output totals 8.5m bales on Sindh’s record contribution,” Dawn, 4 January 2024)
Pakistan’s dollar bonds expected to rally for second year on IMF bailout prospects
On 4 January, The News International reported that investors have anticipated a second year of rallies for Pakistan’s dollar bonds as the government is expected to secure another bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). UBS Asset Management and William Blair Investment Management view Pakistan’s bonds as attractive, projecting gains after the bonds almost doubled in 2023. While gains are expected to moderate, reforms such as fuel and electricity price hikes may pave the way for additional funding. The commitment to the IMF program and potential reforms post-election contribute to the positive outlook, with gains predicted even after a stellar performance in 2023. (“Pakistan’s sizzling bond rally may extend into 2024 on IMF hopes,” The News International, 4 January 2024)
SECURITY
Pak Institute for Peace Studies releases its Pakistan (PIPS) Security report for 2023
On 4 January, the Pak Institute for Peace Studies’ released its Pakistan (PIPS) Security report for 2023, revealing that banned groups were responsible for over 82 per cent of terrorism-related deaths and conducted 78 per cent of terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2023. These include the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). The report indicated that the TTP and its affiliates were likely to continue intensified terrorism to force Pakistan into restarting the dialogue process. Pakistan’s inadequate response to rising terrorism and militancy challenges, along with tensions with Afghanistan, demands a comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy. This has also raised questions over the safety of electoral candidates in the weeks preceding the elections. The report blames the Afghan Taliban’s inability and unwillingness to control TTP’s cross-border activities as the major cause behind a surge in violence and insecurity. The PIPS stated that 306 terrorist attacks happened in Pakistan in 2023, a 17 per cent increase since 2022. All four provinces also witnessed a comparative rise in terrorist incidents, with an increase of 39 per cent in Balochistan, three per cent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 87 per cent in Sindh, and 100 per cent in Punjab. (Iftikhar A Khan, “TTP, IS-K, BLA behind 82pc deaths in terror attacks,” Dawn, 4 January 2024)
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“Peshawar, 3rd January 2024: Pakistan Army has executed 21-gun salute in honor of Peshawar High Court Chief Justice Muhammad Ibrahim for his courage and bravery to uphold rule of law and justice in Pakistan.”
-Inter Services Parody Relations
“The judges of Peshawar High Court, who provide justice at night on the plea of an oppressor, have become a ray of light for the first time in the dark history of Pakistan regarding justice. I appreciate their historic initiative.
-Muhammad Faisal
“Why a complete strike was observed in the port city of Gwadar as well as Turbat, Panjgur, Pasni, Mand, Buleda, Awaran, Bela, Khuzdar, Kalat, Mastung, Noshki, Kharan, Barkhan and Kohlu but not in other parts of Pakistan? Baloch people supported BYC’s call.”
-Hamid Mir
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Editorial, ‘Bangladesh crackdown‘
Dawn, 4 January 2024
“The situation in Bangladesh is reflective of the larger threat to democracy in the region. We in Pakistan are, of course, familiar with the tactics being unleashed by the state in Bangladesh, and similar questions of legitimacy have been raised about our own electoral exercise next month. Meanwhile, India, which goes to the polls in a few months, is also suffering from a democratic deficit, as the BJP’s majoritarian Hindutva juggernaut has repeatedly mauled the secular democratic ethos in that country.”
Zile Huma, ‘COP28: an oasis?‘
The News International, 4 January 2024
“The lack of any kind of accountability mechanism in case of failure to meet the phase-down targets also undermines the set targets. In addition to that, many countries that agreed on the stocktake are expanding their industries of fossil fuels. This also raises the issue of climate justice. It seems that only those countries with less contribution to global carbon emissions will end up carrying the burden of the transition to renewable energy resources.”
Kamila Hyat, ‘What democracy means‘
The News International, 4 January 2024
“While these matters will go to the courts, we need to understand why such an obvious facade of unfair play is being created. It seems evident that the candidate who many believe is the favoured runner for the prime ministerial position will gain a victory without too much help. Perhaps the purpose of all this mess is to ensure that his party has a simple majority and is not dependent on smaller parties to boost it up and keep it in power.”
Editorial, ‘Bat no more‘
The News International, 4 January 2024
“Already, political analysts and activists have pouted out that stripping away a party’s election symbol may have been an overkill by the country’s top electoral body. Of course, the ECP would respond by pointing to the way the PTI conducted its intra-party elections. That said, the repercussions of being without an electoral symbol for any political party are huge because it basically means the party has been de-listed and all its candidates will have different election symbols because they will be contesting independently. It may not be that easy to get people to forget the PTI, though, with some analysts of the opinion that even if the PTI is not eventually able to get the bat as its electoral symbol, its presence on social media will make it easier for its voters to know which PTI candidate has which symbol in his/her constituency.”
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